Summary of Oracles

How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries

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Oracles book summary
Understanding prediction markets will help you tap into the wisdom of the crowd.

Rating

9 Overall

7 Applicability

8 Innovation

9 Style

Review

What do casting a hit musical and predicting the space shuttle Challenger disaster have in common? Both endeavors demonstrate the value of prediction markets – a way to aggregate knowledge, hunches and crowd wisdom – for reaching the best decision or the correct answer in a fashion that resembles a stock market. Organizations use prediction markets, or similar tools, to find a variety of solutions, from deciding on product launches to predicting the winner of presidential elections. Economist Donald N. Thompson explains how these powerful but little-known (and even less-understood) processes can help you improve your business. His text is not a how-to manual but rather a collection of anecdotes, each of which teaches a lesson on how, when or why to use a prediction market. getAbstract finds his treatise to be an easy and surprisingly entertaining read, but what will aggregated reader reviews predict? Only the crowd knows.

In this summary, you will learn

  • What prediction markets are and how they work
  • How companies used prediction markets to solve problems and make decisions
 

Summary

All Together Now
What would happen if a company did not base its decisions exclusively on the knowledge and expertise of its leaders? What if, instead, the business drew on the combined acumen of its entire staff, using not only the expert opinions of executives at the top but the day-...
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About the Author

Economist Donald N. Thompson, a professor emeritus at York University in Toronto, has taught at Harvard Business School and the London School of Economics. He is the author of nine books.


Comment on this summary

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    Patrick Brigger 2 years ago
    Cool book, good read!
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    Olga Ayala 3 years ago
    some people has a visionary way to take decisions when this people is making predictions. But I certanly disagree, we should use some techniques, software, etc.
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    Chander bhushan Vashishat 3 years ago
    technique is required to make forecast not anecdotes.
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    Alex Valadez 3 years ago
    It is most an opinion than a technique, and I do not agree.
  • Avatar
    Vladimir Arkhipenkov 3 years ago
    One shouldn't mix "Prediction" and "Opinion about".
    Everybody can make his opinion about something, but it is hardly to be Prediction
  • Avatar
    Vladimir Arkhipenkov 3 years ago
    Summary may be OK. But I can't agree with auther.
    Prediction Market is too sensitive matter, even experts may be failed not only
    secretaries, loading-dock workers and middle managers. Estimation Market is background, but real prediction needs genious expert
    • Avatar
      Muluken Kebede 3 years ago
      So, what are you saying? Do not predict at market if you are not a genius expert? Failing is part of life, you can't live waiting for 100% assurance or until you find or become a genius. So it is always good to know the best ways to approach things ( "the best way to aggregate knowledge, hunches and crowd wisdom – for reaching the best decision for predicting markets") then who cares if you fail after all these! You gave it your best.

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