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How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries

Harvard Business Review Press,

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Category: Human Resources


In this summary, you will learn

  • What prediction markets are and how they work
  • How companies used prediction markets to solve problems and make decisions


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Why you should read Oracles

What do casting a hit musical and predicting the space shuttle Challenger disaster have in common? Both endeavors demonstrate the value of prediction markets – a way to aggregate knowledge, hunches and crowd wisdom – for reaching the best decision or the correct answer in a fashion that resembles a stock market. Organizations use prediction markets, or similar tools, to find a variety of solutions, from deciding on product launches to predicting the winner of presidential elections. Economist Donald N. Thompson explains how these powerful but little-known (and even less-understood) processes can help you improve your business. His text is not a how-to manual but rather a collection of anecdotes, each of which teaches a lesson on how, when or why to use a prediction market. getAbstract finds his treatise to be an easy and surprisingly entertaining read, but what will aggregated reader reviews predict? Only the crowd knows.

About the Author

Economist Donald N. Thompson, a professor emeritus at York University in Toronto, has taught at Harvard Business School and the London School of Economics. He is the author of nine books.

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  1. July 30, 2013 Patrick Brigger
    Cool book, good read!
  2. December 29, 2012 Olga Ayala
    some people has a visionary way to take decisions when this people is making predictions. But I certanly disagree, we should use some techniques, software, etc.
  3. December 27, 2012 Chander bhushan Vashishat
    technique is required to make forecast not anecdotes.
  4. December 27, 2012 Alex Valadez
    It is most an opinion than a technique, and I do not agree.
  5. December 17, 2012 Vladimir Arkhipenkov
    One shouldn't mix "Prediction" and "Opinion about".
    Everybody can make his opinion about something, but it is hardly to be Prediction
  6. November 30, 2012 Vladimir Arkhipenkov
    Summary may be OK. But I can't agree with auther.
    Prediction Market is too sensitive matter, even experts may be failed not only
    secretaries, loading-dock workers and middle managers. Estimation Market is background, but real prediction needs genious expert
    1. December 16, 2012 Muluken Kebede
      So, what are you saying? Do not predict at market if you are not a genius expert? Failing is part of life, you can't live waiting for 100% assurance or until you find or become a genius. So it is always good to know the best ways to approach things ( "the best way to aggregate knowledge, hunches and crowd wisdom – for reaching the best decision for predicting markets") then who cares if you fail after all these! You gave it your best.

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