Retail 2022: How the Economist Intelligence Unit sees the retail landscape changing over the next decade

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Ten years is a long time in retail, especially given the technology changes and emerging-market growth that are continuing to cause consumer habits to evolve. A decade ago mobile phones were something you made calls on. In 2002 Amazon had only just made the shift into profitability. There was no Facebook. There was not even a Myspace, although pioneers like Friends Reunited and Friendster were laying the foundations for the future success of the social network format. The UK high street was growing and retailers were midway through a long-term policy of aggressive big-box expansion that has reshaped the shopping landscape. In 2002 Chinese nominal GDP was less than 15% of that of the US, barely 3% on a per capita basis.

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects changes in consumer habits to continue accelerating to 2022. Although downturns and periods of weak consumer sentiment are cyclical, the fallout from the economic crisis of 2007 has been a catalyst for change and could underpin longer-term trends. Emerging-market growth will define the retail landscape of the future, not just in terms of demand but also by playing an increasingly acquisitive role in Western markets, which could lead to some familiar brands becoming Chinese or Indian owned. This report will study the changes we expect to see.

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