China’s urban dreams

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China’s urban dreams, and the regional reality is a special report from The Economist Intelligence Unit’s dedicated regional China service, Access China. The paper draws on Access China's unique province- and city-level population forecasts to illustrate how urbanisation will proceed over the next twenty years.

It concludes that China will remain the main force driving global urbanisation over the next 20 years. However, the pace of urban population growth is slowing, in response to rapid ageing and falling fertility rates, and we expect the number of people living in China's cities to begin to decline in the 2040s. The much ballyhooed idea of China's "urban billion" is likely to prove a marketing fantasy.

The paper also explores how urbanisation trends will diverge at the local level in China. Although most major cities in eastern and central provinces will see a significant increase in their urban populations over the next 20 years, many urban areas in north-eastern and western China are likely to stagnate.

Download: China’s urban dream

China urban dreams 2014 - Economist Intelligence Unit

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