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No Ordinary Disruption

The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends

Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel

Public Affairs, 2015

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In this insightful, informative report, directors of the McKinsey Global Institute Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel identify four disruptive trends that business leaders must contend with: the rise of cities in the developing world; the pace of technological change; the aging of the world’s population; and new patterns of global trade and information flow. Dobbs, Manyika and Woetzel show how these trends send ripples through the world economy, bringing both risk and opportunity. Their vision for the future conveys optimism – though they sometimes seem to understate the potential effects of environmental disruptions and political instability. They make it clear that business leaders must rethink the obsolete assumptions driving their decisions. getAbstract recommends this perceptive overview to senior executives in the public and private sectors, and to anyone seeking to understand the forces shaping today’s world.

Summary

Four Disruptive Forces

In the 21st century, four major trends are shaping the world’s economy and disrupting traditional business. To adapt, leaders must rethink decades-old assumptions about “consumption, resources, labor, capital and competition.”

The first trend is growing urbanization in developing nations, which helps shift the locus of economic power to the east and south. The second is the unprecedented speed of technological innovation and the way consumers are adopting it. The third is the aging of the world’s population, as businesses face older workers and consumers. The fourth is the reshaping of the world’s trade and information flow from hub-to-hub lines into a sprawling “web.” A lot of executive thinking on these subjects stems from “intuition.” Leaders must “reset” their intuition in light of these new realities.

Opportunities

Forward-looking leaders should view these transformative trends as opportunities, not threats:

1. New Urban Centers

Across the world, people are moving at an unprecedented rate from rural areas to cities in search of opportunity and the prospect of a better life. In China, where 400 million people...

About the Authors

The authors are directors of the McKinsey Global Institute. Former Oxford professor Richard Dobbs co-wrote Value: The Four Cornerstones of Corporate Finance. James Manyika is a Brookings Institution senior fellow. Jonathan Woetzel teaches at the China-European International Business School and has written four books on China.

No Ordinary Disruption

The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends

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Four Disruptive Forces

Opportunities

1. New Urban Centers

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