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The Art of Thinking Clearly

Rolf Dobelli

Harper, 2013

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You are an irrational being, but don’t worry; that’s part of being human. Nobody is immune to cognitive errors, unconscious thinking habits that lead to false conclusions or poor decisions. Mere mortals are prone to an array of common thinking errors and will consistently overestimate their chances of success, prefer stories to facts, confuse the message with the messenger, become overwhelmed by choices and ignore alternative options. For more, see getAbstract co-founder Rolf Dobelli’s set of 99 short chapters, each detailing a cognitive flaw. Knowing these errors won’t help you avoid them completely, but it will help you make better decisions – or at least teach you where you slipped. Dobelli’s underlying humor and his choice selection of anecdotes make this eye-opening compendium of cognitive science theories warmly accessible.

Summary

To Err Is Human

Human beings are prone to cognitive errors, or barriers to clear, logical thinking. Everyone experiences flawed patterns in the process of reasoning. In fact, many of these common mistakes have a history that goes back centuries. Even experts fall prey to such glitches, which might explain why supposedly savvy financiers hold investments for too long. Identifying “systematic cognitive errors” will help you avoid them. You can’t sidestep these irrationalities completely, because that would require a level of control and willpower beyond human capability. However, becoming familiar with these pitfalls will improve your ability to make astute decisions. Heed this selection of cognitive errors to avoid their consequences:

“Survivorship Bias”

Tales of garage bands making it big, authors self-publishing bestsellers or college athletes signing with the major leagues for millions are so inspiring that people tend to overestimate their own chances of duplicating such career trajectories. This bias makes most folks focus on the few stars who soar, not the millions of ordinary humans who falter. This tendency is quite pernicious among investors and entrepreneurs...

About the Author

Rolf Dobelli is a co-founder of getAbstract and the founder of Zurich.Minds, a community of leaders in science, the arts and business. His earlier books – novels and aphorisms – were published in German.

The Art of Thinking Clearly

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To Err Is Human

“Survivorship Bias”

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