Assessments

Mexico

Mexico's President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum gives a speech after the first results released by the election authorities show that she is leading the polls by a wide margin on June 3, 2024, in Mexico City, Mexico. 

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

As president, Sheinbaum will largely maintain Lopez Obrador's domestic policies, but pending legislative results could set the stage for controversial constitutional reforms. 

Morena Sweeps Mexico's General Election, Portending Policy Continuity and Possible Constitutional Reforms

Global Elections

South Africa

United States

France

India

A rally for Morena party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum on May 29 in Mexico City's Zocalo.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's ANC Faces a Reckoning, Mexican Voters Select a New President

Media

Russia

Podcasts

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

How might this trend of sabotage incidents evolve?

Essential Geopolitics: Global Implications of Russia's Sabotage Campaign

Snapshots

Bolivia

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales (2nd from left) participates in the 10th congress of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party on Oct. 4, 2023. 

Military & Security

The dispute over who will be the ruling party's 2025 presidential candidate is unlikely to ease anytime soon, portending more political gridlock, economic uncertainty and violent unrest.

A Rift at the Helm of Bolivia's Government Paves the Way for More Instability

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

China

Japan

South Korea

(From left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attend a joint press conference during a trilateral summit on May 27, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Barring major economic and political shifts, cooperation between the three countries is unlikely to notably improve, as Seoul and Tokyo's strategic interests will remain largely at odds with Beijing's.

Reviewing the China-Japan-South Korea Summit: A Long Shot Effort To Ease Tensions

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 23, 2024

Europe

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks during a meeting at Palazzo Chigi in Rome, Italy, on May 13, 2024. 

Meloni's party is expected to perform strongly in the upcoming European Parliament elections, which would grant the Italian prime minister more sway over EU policymaking in the years ahead.

Under Meloni, Italy's Influence in the EU Is Set To Grow

Iran

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A delegation of Afghan Taliban officials walks down a hotel lobby in Doha, Qatar, in August 2021. 

A combination of security considerations and economic opportunities will continue to ease the Afghan Taliban's international isolation in the years ahead, but many countries will remain wary of close relations with the group or its formal recognition.

The Afghan Taliban's International Isolation Appears To Be Easing

North Korea

Taiwan

While President Biden would be expected to continue to build and strengthen alliances with America's key allies in the northern Asian region, the reelection of President Trump could spur those same allies to look beyond the U.S. for their physical and economic security.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

The sun sets over a U.S. flag at a veterans cemetery in Los Angeles, California, in May 2018.

The act of formal remembrance is one of the most profound human gestures, whether it is conducted on the personal or the national level.

Memorial Day, The Eternal Observance 

Latest

United Kingdom

The Labour Party is expected to comfortably win the July 4 general election, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule. But a hung parliament where no party secures a majority cannot be ruled out.

2024 Elections: The United Kingdom

Supporters of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate vote counting results for India's general election in Bengaluru on June 4, 2024. 

Results from India's general election indicate Modi's party will remain in power, but will fall short of an outright majority, forcing the BJP to rely on parties within its ruling coalition to govern.

India's BJP Clinches Another Term, but With a Weaker Majority

The June 28 presidential election will likely yield another hard-liner, but there's a chance Iran's Guardian Council will open the race up to more moderate candidates who, if elected, may seek to improve ties with the West. 

2024 Elections: Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

South African President and leader of the African National Congress (ANC) Cyril Ramaphosa (center) delivers his remarks after the official announcement of the results of South Africa's general election at the Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand, on June 2, 2024. 

To secure a parliamentary majority, President Ramaphosa appears likely to seek an agreement with the center-right Democratic Alliance party, which would raise investor confidence but also risk triggering violent unrest.

What's Next for South Africa Following the ANC's Historic Electoral Defeat

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Peru

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address to lawmakers in Congress on July 28, 2023.

Repeated impeachment efforts against President Boluarte indicate challenges to policymaking and, to a lesser degree, economic conditions, which will likely persist until the end of Boluarte's term in 2026.

Peru's Yearslong Political Crisis Shows Little Sign of Easing

People walk past campaign posters for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) outside the party's office in Leh, India, on May 17, 2024, during the country's ongoing general election.

While highly unlikely to threaten Modi's reelection, the lower turnout seen so far in the ongoing ballot means his party may not secure enough seats in parliament to unilaterally pass constitutional amendments during its next term.

India Election Update: The BJP Is Still Set To Win, But Low Turnout Dims Hopes for a Supermajority

Rescue team members work at the crash site of a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran, on May 20, 2024. Raisi was declared dead on May 20 after rescue teams found his crashed helicopter.

The death will not significantly impact Iran's regional strategy, but will increase uncertainty surrounding the country's looming supreme leader succession.

Iran's President Raisi Has Died. What Now?

Netherlands

The four leaders of the parties that form the new Dutch government,  Geert Wilders, Dilan Yesilgoz, Caroline van der Plas and Pieter Omtzigt, (L-R) on May 16 in The Hague.

While some elements of the new Dutch ruling coalition's agreement, such as a tightening of migration policies and environmental measures, will likely cause friction with the European Union and the Dutch business community, the far right's need to collaborate with mainstream coalition partners has somewhat moderated the new government's agenda.

Building a New Government Moderates the Dutch Far Right

Georgia

Georgian students protest the government's controversial ''foreign agents'' bill in Tbilisi on May 13, 2024. 

While the bill's passage may increase and radicalize supporters of the pro-Western opposition, the ruling GD party is still favored to win upcoming elections, ensuring the country's continued reorientation toward Russia.

Georgia Is Set To Adopt Its Controversial 'Foreign Agents' Bill. What Now?

Saudi Arabia

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

Israel

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

Philippines

Singapore

Vietnam

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Hong Kong SAR, China

Hong Kong police arrested four demonstrators for "seditious intent" and detained five more, including two foreign nationals, The South China Morning Post reported on June 5.

Hong Kong: Authorities Make Use of New National Security Ordinance With String of Arrests

During Mexico's 2024 election cycle, the country experienced the highest number of political murders in its modern history, with 63 assassinations of political figures reported between June 2023 and June 2024, El Economista reported on June 5.

Mexico: 2024 Election Brought the Most Political Killings in Mexico's Modern History

Following India's general election, the Union Cabinet proposed the dissolution of the lower house and forwarded this recommendation to President Droupadi Murmu, along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's resignation ahead of his third term, The Times of India reported on June 5.

India: Lower House Dissolves as Government Formation Begins

The United States is ready to backstop a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, possibly in partnership with other Group of Seven countries, guaranteed by profits from frozen Russian assets held by the European Union if the bloc agrees to extend the related sanctions regime indefinitely, the Financial Times reported on June 5, citing a leaked discussion paper.

U.S., EU: U.S. To Provide $50B Loan to Ukraine if EU Guarantees Russian Sanctions Regime

Ukrainian government officials said that by this winter, residents would be spending the vast majority of their days without electricity, the Financial Times reported on June 5.

Ukraine: Electricity Shortages Appear Likely To Worsen Amid Russian Campaign

The South African Communist Party, or SACP, and the Congress of South African Trade Unions, or Cosatu, pushed back against plans by leaders of the ruling African National Congress party, or ANC, to strike an agreement with the center-right Democratic Alliance, or DA, News24 reported on June 4.

South Africa: ANC Allies Oppose Agreement With the Democratic Alliance

Lebanon

A gunman opened fire on the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon north of Beirut, injuring an individual inside, Reuters reported on June 5.

Lebanon: Gunman Opens Fire on U.S. Embassy Amid Deteriorating Economic, Security Environments

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Osama Hamdan, a Hamas official, said the group could not accept a cease-fire with Israel without Israel committing to withdraw fully from the Gaza Strip, which Israel has rejected out of hand, Reuters reported on June 4. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Demands Guarantees for Israeli Withdrawal Before Agreeing to Cease-Fire

Science & Technology

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

President Joe Biden signed an executive order that restricts asylum requests once the average number of daily encounters between Customs and Border Protection agents and migrants who illegally cross the U.S.-Mexico border rises above 2,500, NBC reported on June 4.

U.S.: President Biden Announces Restriction on Asylum Requests

South Korea's deputy defense minister for policy stated in a press briefing that the country will restore military activities at the border with North Korea, including immediately deploying propaganda loudspeakers, Yonhap News Agency reported on June 4. 

South Korea: Seoul To Resume Military Activities at North Korean Border

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

2024 Elections: The United Kingdom

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Hong Kong: Authorities Make Use of New National Security Ordinance With String of Arrests

Mexico: 2024 Election Brought the Most Political Killings in Mexico's Modern History

India: Lower House Dissolves as Government Formation Begins

U.S., EU: U.S. To Provide $50B Loan to Ukraine if EU Guarantees Russian Sanctions Regime

Ukraine: Electricity Shortages Appear Likely To Worsen Amid Russian Campaign

South Africa: ANC Allies Oppose Agreement With the Democratic Alliance

Lebanon: Gunman Opens Fire on U.S. Embassy Amid Deteriorating Economic, Security Environments

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Demands Guarantees for Israeli Withdrawal Before Agreeing to Cease-Fire

U.S.: President Biden Announces Restriction on Asylum Requests

South Korea: Seoul To Resume Military Activities at North Korean Border

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support