Who Has the Most to Lose If China’s Trade Ambition Succeeds?
The most exposed countries have a high dependence on exports and a substantial presence in the electronics, auto, and shipping sectors.
Workers at an electric vehicle manufacturing company in Sanmenxia in central China’s Henan province on Aug. 21, 2018.
Photographer: Wang Zirui/Sipa Asia/Zuma Press
Ten months after President Donald Trump launched the first volley in a tariff war, the path to a future of free and fair trade looks increasingly narrow. On one side, rising protectionism in the U.S. threatens to undo decades of progress in dismantling barriers to commerce. On the other, China’s increasingly muscular industrial policy raises concerns that Beijing will spare no effort or expense to give national champions the edge over international rivals.
The origins of the current impasse go back to Nov. 10, 2001. On that date, at a meeting of the World Trade Organization in Doha, the club welcomed China as its 143rd member. Hailing the decision, then-President Jiang Zemin promised China would “strike a carefully thought-out balance between honoring its commitments and enjoying its rights.”