Summary of 10 Economic Shocks to Look Out For in 2017

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10 Economic Shocks to Look Out For in 2017 summary
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Recommendation

Economists are divided over what the Trump administration will bring in 2017. Some fear that US president Donald Trump will start a trade war or worse, pulling the entire world economy into an economic downward spiral. Others applaud Trump’s business-friendly economic agenda and expect a boost to the US economy in the coming years. Although the human factor in the equation remains unpredictable, award-winning economic forecaster Nariman Behravesh argues that the economic fundamentals for 2017 are surprisingly sound. getAbstract recommends Behravesh’s concise 10-point memorandum on the strengths and risks of the global economy in 2017 to investors and business strategists.

About the Author

Nariman Behravesh is the chief economist at financial services firm IHS Markit. Bloomberg ranked him among its top 10 economists in 2009 and 2010.

 

Summary

With the uncertainty surrounding the 2016 US presidential election resolved, the economic outlook for the United States and the world in 2017 is, perhaps surprisingly, quite positive. Financial services firm IHS Markit estimates the “risk of either a US or global recession in 2017” to be less than 25%. A well-supplied oil market, sound international monetary conditions and the lack of “asset bubbles” provide reasons for optimism.

Expected tax cuts and infrastructure spending, along with increased investment in the...


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