Summary of 2018 Global Outlook: Four dangerous dynamics in the Middle East

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2018 Global Outlook: Four dangerous dynamics in the Middle East summary
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Middle Eastern politics are notoriously complex and unpredictable. This holds especially true in 2018, as domestic unrest, shifting alliances, armed bloodshed and foreign meddling redefine the dynamics in nations such as Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Strategic risk analyst and investment adviser Bernard Siman identifies four regional trends he thinks will prove most consequential in the near term. Based on these trends, he outlines several future-looking scenarios in a report written for the Lichtenstein-based Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS). 

About the Author

Bernard Siman is a strategic risk analyst advising investors and insurance operators from the Gulf, Japan and Europe. 

 

Summary

The probability of armed conflict in the Middle East in the near term seems very high, given the following four trends:   

  • Iranian-Israeli tensions – Iranian troops and proxies have successfully defeated the main warring parties in the Syrian civil war. As a result, Iran now controls a continuous stretch of territory from Iran through Iraq to the Mediterranean. Iran has also established a military presence in the Golan Heights region, putting Israel on alert. Should an armed conflict erupt between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iranian troops in the Golan Heights, Israel could...

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