Summary of An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27

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An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27 summary
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In this incisive analysis of Brexit consequences, researchers Michael Emerson, Matthias Busse, Mattia Di Salvo, Daniel Gros and Jacques Pelkmans at the Center for European Policy Studies find that the negative fallout may be much more pronounced for the United Kingdom than for the 27 members left in the European Union. Projected losses for the EU27 countries, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product, are minimal, but Britain’s costs could be ten times as great. getAbstract recommends this scholarly, thorough and relevant study to those well-versed in the intricacies of EU economics and politics.

In this summary, you will learn

  • What costs Brexit could inflict on the EU27 and the United Kingdom;
  • How much is at stake, in terms of foreign direct investment and trade in goods and services; and
  • What alternative trade arrangements between Britain and the EU 27 might materialize.

About the Authors

Michael Emerson et al. are professionals with the Centre for European Policy Studies.



Both the United Kingdom and the remaining 27 European Union countries will incur losses after the Brexit separation. But these costs will not be evenly distributed. Through 2030, forecasts suggest that the average losses per year to the EU will be between 0.01% and 0.05% of GDP, while those to Britain could run from 0.13% to 0.41% of GDP.

Pre-Brexit trade between the United Kingdom and the EU is extensive. In 2015, the EU27 exported €306 billion [$362 billion] in goods to Britain and imported €184 billion. Some €94 billion in...

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    Ashish Agarwal 2 years ago
    Losses in terms of percent of GDP seems insignificant; what does it mean in real terms?

    What is the relevance of NATO in this situation?

    What are the chances of additional countries leaving the EU27 and what is the relevance of 'EU minus UK' as an entity in the World Order?