Summary of The Signal and the Noise

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Rating

getAbstract International Book Award Winner 2013

9 Overall

9 Applicability

9 Innovation

9 Style


Recommendation

During the 2012 American presidential race, predictions varied wildly about who would win. Yet Nate Silver correctly predicted the results in all 50 states. Here, Silver discusses predictions and forecasting in fields ranging from epidemiology to gambling. The book is dense with information, and it is, quite simply, beautiful. It is clearly written and explains complex concepts well, with ample honesty, humility and dry humor. Silver’s insights will serve those who seek to do a better job of reading the future, as well as futurists, investors, candidates and policy makers. getAbstract could demonstrate its forecasting ability by proclaiming that the book will do very well, but given that it is a bestseller, that doesn’t take a crystal ball.

In this summary, you will learn

  • Why predictions fail,
  • How predictions work in different disciplines and contexts, and
  • How to make better predictions.
 

About the Author

Nate Silver is the owner and editor-in-chief of ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight blog and is a special correspondent for ABC News.

 

Summary

Information Explosions
Johannes Gutenberg’s invention of the printing press in 1440 sparked the first massive expansion of access to knowledge, changing the availability of information. Before Gutenberg, scribes copied books by hand; each volume cost about $20,000 in today’s prices. Copying...

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