Summary of Third Time Unlucky

Recession in 2014?


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Third Time Unlucky summary
Economic indicators and history point to recession in early 2014.


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The Fed has been lucky twice, but fortune won’t smile a third time. Recession will recur in 2014 with tax and benefit cuts the only way out. These oft-repeated neo-conservative maxims will most likely not lead the Fed to change its policy. Economist John Makin asserts that the financial sector should undergo deregulation and – post-Lehman collapse – that offends many. Still, getAbstract recommends Makin’s thoughtful take on business cycles.

In this summary, you will learn

  • Why the US economy will dip into recession early in 2014,
  • How the US is returning to a more normal business cycle pattern and
  • What four policy reforms might mute the adverse effects of the inevitable downturn.


The US economy has been in recovery since 2009. Its expansion survived two “swoons” (growth of 0.1% and 0.4% in the first quarter of 2011 and the fourth quarter of 2012, respectively) but proved anemic in terms of labor and consumer demand. Even so, the US Federal Reserve predicts GDP growth of between...
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About the Author

John H. Makin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

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