Given that the current economic recovery in the United States began in 2009, some observers think that an economic slowdown is long overdue. But does a long recovery necessarily translate into an inevitable reversal of economic fortune? Or are periodic short-term stumbles just parts of the aging process that occur in a normal, growing economy? Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believes “it’s a myth that expansions die of old age.” Economist Glenn D. Rudebusch finds support for Yellen’s observation in this eye-opening examination of post–World War II recoveries, which getAbstract recommends to economists and others interested in a new take on forecasting trends.
In this summary, you will learn
- Why some observers think the United States is due for a slowdown or recession,
- How “survival analysis” can help gauge the probability of the recovery’s ending, and
- Why post–World War II historical patterns show that today’s long-lasting economic recovery is not particularly unusual.
About the Author
Glenn D. Rudebusch is director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Get the key points from this report in 10 minutes.
For your company
We help you build a culture of continuous learning.
Comment on this summary
Customers who read this summary also read
World Economic Forum
World Economic Forum, 2017
World Economic Forum, 2016