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Economist Shaun Roache examines the growth of Chinese onshore bonds – leading to their recent inclusion in a major global bond index – and discusses the likely ramifications of the market’s opening to overseas investors. Roache concludes that the vast size of the Chinese market means it is inevitable that its influence will ultimately catch up to that the US Treasury market. This short but thought-provoking overview will help readers understand the developments in China’s bond market that are likely to ripple across global capital markets in coming decades.

About the Author

Shaun Roche is the Asia-Pacific chief economist at S&P Global.

 

Summary

Chinese bonds are now included in a major global bond benchmark.

The opening of China’s bond market to overseas investors has led Bloomberg to add Chinese onshore bonds to its Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index. As a result, China will have greater exposure to international capital markets, while its influence on yields and the financial environment in the Asia-Pacific region will grow.

Although foreign investment in Chinese bonds has risen, it is still low at 2%, compared with overseas ownership of US and Japanese bonds of 24% and 12%, respectively. As foreign inflows increase, so will outflows from China, subject to the exchange rate and the ...


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