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Noise
Book

Noise

A Flaw in Human Judgment

Little, Brown Spark, 2021
First Edition: 2021 more...


Editorial Rating

9

Qualities

  • Analytical
  • Innovative
  • Concrete Examples

Recommendation

Professor Daniel Kahneman of Thinking, Fast and Slow brings his expertise in decision-making to bear on the phenomenon of noise. When you use your judgment to make evaluations or predictions, you are liable to make errors, without knowing how or why. For instance, people mistakenly believe that errors “cancel each other out” but they don’t. They add up. Examining medicine, the judicial system and insurance, Kahneman and co-authors Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein expose egregious, undetected errors that a “noise audit” could have diagnosed and avoided. By managing noise, they assert, you can solve problems instead of creating new ones. 

Take-Aways

  • Physicians, judges, investors and many other professionals show a strikingly high level of disagreement in separate judgments of the same cases.
  • “Noise” is variability in judgments that should be identical.
  • Noise is found in judgments of the same case by different persons and also in each person’s judgments on separate occasions.

About the Authors

Princeton emeritus professor and 2002 Economic Sciences Nobelist Daniel Kahneman wrote Thinking, Fast and Slow. Former McKinsey senior partner Olivier Sibony teaches strategy at HEC Paris and Saïd Business School, Oxford, and wrote You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake! Bestsellers by Cass R. Sunstein – Department of Homeland Security senior counselor in the Biden administration and Harvard professor – include How Change Happens, and Nudge, co-authored with Richard Thaler.


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