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What Do Economists Actually Know?
Article

What Do Economists Actually Know?

Turns out, not as much as you – and they – would like to think

Russ Roberts
NewCo Shift, 2017
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7

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Recommendation

Politicians and journalists frequently call upon economists to make sense of a complex and highly unpredictable world. But the fine print that should qualify any economist’s answer is that no one actually knows for sure. In this article, EconTalk podcast host Russ Roberts provides plenty of reasons to doubt the predictive capacity of economists. Certainly, the assertion that economics isn’t a precise scientific discipline is not new. Many scholars, most notably Nassim Taleb, have argued the case elegantly. But this article is a useful reminder to approach economic predictions with a grain of salt. getAbstract recommends it to decision makers who rely on economic forecasts and to overconfident economists. 

Take-Aways

  • Economics is not a science. Unlike scientists, economists can’t prove their predictions in scientific experiments.
  • Economists support their assessments with statistical evidence they collect themselves, but they don’t reveal the details of their evidence-gathering process.
  • When economists publish their results, they rarely disclose whether they have come across evidence that contradicts their conclusions.

About the Author

Russ Roberts is a research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. He is the host of the EconTalk podcast and author of How Adam Smith Can Change Your Life.  

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