The Thinker’s Toolkit

Most people make errors in decision-making due to flaws in their “analytic techniques” or to the innate proclivity of human beings to believe what they “prefer to be true.”

Most people make analytical mistakes due to the tendency to believe what they would like to be true. But if you know the barriers you face and the cognitive traps you can fall into, you can significantly improve your insight. When you set out to diagnose and solve a problem, knowing how to systematize or configure your diagnosis and choices can makes a big difference.

“Analysis” means breaking a difficult issue into its components and subcomponents. One way to structure an investigation is to sort the factors that affect your decision in an orderly way. Conventional methods work for everyday problems, but often they aren’t helpful when you’re facing the 10% of problems that involve significant issues or decisions. Most people want to make sensible choices in their personal and business lives. They may face complicated issues that defy simple resolution. Often they may want to sidestep the problem, even if temporarily. They accept incomplete remedies because they lack an organized method...