Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?

Given that the current economic recovery in the United States began in 2009, some observers think that an economic slowdown is long overdue. But does a long recovery necessarily translate into an inevitable reversal of economic fortune? Or are periodic short-term stumbles just parts of the aging process that occur in a normal, growing economy? Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believes “it’s a myth that expansions die of old age.” Economist Glenn D. Rudebusch finds support for Yellen’s observation in this eye-opening examination of post–World War II recoveries, which getAbstract recommends to economists and others interested in a new take on forecasting trends.