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China’s Future
Book

China’s Future

Polity Press, 2016 Mehr


Editorial Rating

7

Qualities

  • Comprehensive

Recommendation

Professor David Shambaugh issues a wake-up call to those who believe that China’s progress is unstoppable. He reports that it must overcome massive impediments to develop fully, and explains why it might not succeed and could become more nationalistic and repressive. Shambaugh links China’s need for innovation and better service sector performance to deeper issues, including the hope that the Chinese Communist Party will relinquish its hold, especially on the financial sector. So far, China has defied the Western idea that economic success requires democratization. getAbstract recommends this keen-eyed overview of China’s economy to those investing or doing business in China, or planning to do so.

Take-Aways

  • Throughout history, nations have needed to democratize to develop economically.
  • China’s response to the 2008 crisis was a $586 billion stimulus package. This prevented a recession, but it caused asset bubbles and delayed efforts to rebalance the economy.
  • The country’s export-led model of investing in cheap, large fixed assets faces “diminishing returns.”

About the Author

David Shambaugh is a professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University and the director of its China Policy Program. He is also a nonresident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution.


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