How Civil Wars Start
Book

How Civil Wars Start

And How to Stop Them

Barbara F. Walter
Crown, 2022
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In March 1992, residents of Sarajevo were surprised to hear distant gunfire, political scientist Barbara F. Walter reports; few suspected their fractious but peaceful country would ever devolve into bloody ethnic cleansing. In this timely and compelling analysis of political violence, Walter looks at the common threads that connect a century’s worth of civil wars, from Spain to Syria to Ireland. The United States’ democracy is threatened as well, Walter argues, though she doesn’t predict a civil war in America.

Summary

Civil wars follow predictable patterns.

On January 6, 2021, a mob invaded the US Capitol in a bid to stop a peaceful transition of power. While those who stormed the Capitol failed to halt President Joe Biden’s inauguration, they did remind observers of just how fragile democracies can be and how quickly civil conflict can erupt. Across the globe, inequality has grown, and demagogues have seized prominent roles. 

The modern history of civil war shows that violent internal unrest follows a familiar script. Whether the location is Bosnia, Iraq, Syria, Northern Ireland, or another nation, the broad themes are similar. These conflicts typically take place in societies with weakened and undermined democratic institutions and out-of-power groups whose members feel oppressed and hopeless.

Americans are tempted to believe that their democracy is immune to civil war. After all, their system has withstood the test of time, even surviving the bloody Civil War of the 1860s. However, a closer look reveals reasons for concern. The January 6 incursion was just one sign. The previous year, in 2020, members of a militia hatched...

About the Author

Barbara F. Walter is the Rohr Professor of International Relations at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego.

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