The Future of Jobs

Work Force Disruption

The World Economic Forum (WEF) surveyed 371 companies in 15 developed and emerging national and regional economies to ask how “disruptive changes” in the business world will affect employment in nine industrial sectors by 2020. Working with the Global Challenge Initiative on Gender Parity and the Global Challenge Initiative on Employment, Skills and Human Capital, the WEF’s goals were to identify areas of “disruption,” to learn what new talents people will need, and to inspire ideas for public and private sectors collaboration to cope with anticipated changes.

“For businesses to capitalize on new opportunities, they will need to put talent development and future workforce strategy front and center to their growth.”

The participating corporations employ more than 13 million people and represent these industry sectors: “basic and infrastructure; consumer; energy; financial services and investors; health care; information and communication technology; media, entertainment and information; mobility” and “professional services.” Each area includes different “job families.” The WEF asked participating chief human resources officers (CHROs) and other business leaders for information on their “mass employment jobs” – the workers that account for most of their labor forces – and about “specialist jobs” – the employees who make the companies’ products or services competitive. The survey also asked respondents to identify “wholly new occupations” they foresee springing up by 2020 and to list jobs they believe will no longer exist.

Change and More Change

The survey results indicate that the world of work is facing a “Fourth Industrial Revolution” – a dynamic era of change stemming from two primary motivators:

1. Demographic and social changes – This category includes adaptable work schedules, migrations to cities, graying populations, global warming, “rising geopolitical volatility,” and more people entering the middle class in “emerging markets.” It includes women’s growing workforce influence and the increasing number of young workers.
2. Technological advances – This covers such innovations as the mobile Internet, affordable computers, the cloud, big data, the Internet of Things, the “sharing economy,” 3D printing, crowdsourcing, robotics, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and genomics.

“The Fourth Industrial Revolution now presents an unprecedented opportunity to place women’s equal participation in the workplace at the heart of preparations for the shifts to come.”

Some motivators of change are already operating in certain industries, and corporate experts expect change drivers to arise between 2016 and 2020. For example, telecommuting and virtual conferences play a role in employees’ ability to work adaptive schedules. Worldwide “supply chains and production networks” have not yet felt the impact of 3D printing, though they probably will soon. In all nine of the surveyed business areas, the “top trend” change motivators are adaptive work scheduling and the resources of the mobile Internet and the cloud. These “drivers of change” portend exciting, positive developments. They will – and, in some cases, already do – require rapid adjustment on the part of businesses, governments, cultures and people. They will create new positions that require new talents and skills, and they will make other jobs obsolete. Though some trends will impel significant change in certain businesses but not in others, overall these change engines will “transform how and where people work.”

Trends and Timing

While tech innovations are huge motivators for change, pending demographic, societal and economic transformations will have “nearly as strong an impact.” In some developed countries, participants identified adaptive work schedules as their top trend, while those in emerging economies cited the expanding middle class. Though “time-to-impact” estimations vary among businesses, survey participants agreed that the pace of change will keep increasing. Companies, governments and organizations must ensure that change has a positive affect on the work world.

Job Creation or Job Destruction?

Respondents were wary about the benefits of artificial intelligence. They don’t expect it to cause “societal upheaval” by 2020. They were more positive about the likely job-creating benefits of advances in the mobile Internet, big data, robotics and the Internet of Things. They are eager to take advantage of demographic changes like the burgeoning middle class – which Brazilian and Chinese CHROs cited as their top trend – as well as women’s greater workforce participation and the growing number of young workers. Geopolitical volatility was their greatest concern.

“Disruptive changes to industry sectors are already reconfiguring business models and skill sets.”

Respondents in architecture/engineering and computer/mathematical areas foresaw strong increases in some jobs, but a “significant decline” in administrative and clerical positions. They anticipated a “moderate decline” in manufacturing due to “labor-saving” innovations, people using products longer, and aging populations’ reduced demand for goods and services. Robotics and 3D printing are promising job-creators in manufacturing and architecture. Other changes portend less consistent results. For example, while an increased desire for renewable energy will provide more jobs in installation and maintenance, the Internet of Things could prove harmful to overall job creation. Advances in automation are already displacing salespeople as machines take on the work of human cashiers. Innovation will make a positive contribution to sales jobs through “online shopping and the application of big data analytics.”

“A wide range of occupations will require a higher degree of cognitive abilities – such as creativity, logical reasoning and problem sensitivity – as part of their core skill set.”

Survey respondents expect the most adverse impact on employment in the area of professional services, specifically as technology makes office and administrative positions “redundant.” But while the world seems vastly interested in the promises and threats of artificial intelligence and machine learning, respondents didn’t predict that either one would have much impact by 2020.

How Many Jobs?

The WEF extrapolated the survey results to estimate the projected numbers of jobs that will increase and decrease by 2020. They estimated that the trends and disruptions the survey identified could cause the world economy to lose 7.1 million jobs, mostly in the administrative and clerical world. They also foresaw an estimated increase of 2 million jobs in other areas. In some industries, results vary or are inconclusive. Training and education could boost talent in manufacturing/production, while jobs in personal care and service will probably keep expanding as more people get older. Because the manufacturing/production and construction/extraction industries employ fewer women than, say, sales or administration, recent gains by women in the workforce could slow down or even retreat.

“Many formerly purely technical occupations are expected to show a new demand for creative and interpersonal skills.”

Survey results justify a “modestly positive outlook for employment across most sectors over the 2015-2020 period.” Expect significant job growth in business and finance, in computer and math, and in management. Data analytics will drive change as more businesses leaders come to understand the role analytics can play in helping firms remain competitive. Jobs in transportation and logistics will do well, though geopolitical volatility remains a threat. The increase in young workers and the expanding middle class in developing areas portend growth in financial services and investments. The health care field will grow, despite advances in telehealth and other labor-saving technologies, but changes in this industry will require workers to pursue continuing education and “upskilling” opportunities in order to remain steadily employed.

“New and Emerging” Jobs

If you’re a data analyst or a specialized sales representative, you’re in luck. Those two positions seem likely to benefit from future trends more than other roles – either because more businesses will use more data or because innovations will require sales reps who can market specialized products more clearly and more skillfully. The market will experience new needs for HR and training specialists, “regulatory and government relations specialists,” and managers who can lead firms through anticipated disruptions. Because change will affect nearly every job category, it will influence firms’ ability to recruit and train. As new jobs require new skills, salaries must rise, and firms must offer improved work-life balance and “flexible work” opportunities. Flex work is an important driver of change. For example, 60% of respondents in France cited it as a leading motivator.

“It is time for a fundamental change in how talent diversity issues – whether in the realm of gender, age, ethnicity or sexual orientation – are perceived and well-known barriers tackled.”\\”

Recruitment will be a significant challenge, especially as specialist roles emerge. These positions are already hard to fill. The pace of change will make finding the right candidates even more difficult – particularly in computer, math, and installation and maintenance jobs. In Germany, survey participants expect more difficult recruiting for basic and infrastructure work, mobility, professional services, and financial services by 2020. Many factors affect recruitment in different geographies. In Japan, for example, the graying population will present recruiting challenges, while CHROs in the United States believe data-analyst jobs will become more difficult to fill.

A Question of Skills

Change drivers demand new skills and “shorten the shelf life” of employees’ current talents. The Fourth Industrial Revolution won’t allow firms to take years to build training programs in response. By 2020, more than one-third of workers will need skills they don’t now have. While necessary talents can vary, 36% of business jobs will require “complex problem solving” as a core skill. “Cognitive abilities, systems skills, content skills” and “social skills” will be in high demand. The value of “physical abilities” will decrease. Salespeople will face a higher requirement for technical knowledge, while health care workers will face an increased necessity for “interpersonal skills.” Only 18% of positions that now demand enhanced cognitive abilities will experience a decrease in that need by 2020.

“Harnessed well, the emergence of new flexible working patterns and other similar trends could result in a more gender-balanced workplace.”

While many nations focus on educating people in STEM skills – science, technology, engineering and math – all job families will experience changes in other skills, as well. Expect “large mismatches” between needed and available skills. Organizations must recognize and respond to these mismatches quickly. Some talents, like cognitive abilities, take a long time to acquire. Today, just more than half of CHROs believe their firms are ready to shift their strategies and face change. Across the nine business areas, participants cite a lack of comprehension of disruptors, a lack of resources and pressure to achieve “short-term profitability” as obstructions to progress. Possible strategies include giving workers experience in various roles, training more female employees and working more closely with educators to enhance training capabilities.

“The challenge for employers, individuals and governments alike is going to be to work out ways and means to ensure that the changing nature of work benefits everyone.”

Viable short-term tactics for enhanced talent management include giving HR “a seat at the table” to ensure more strategic decision making; better using data and metrics to anticipate gaps and challenges; accelerating diversity initiatives and being more responsive to the need for flexible work. Long-term strategies include “rethinking education systems,” giving workers incentives for “lifelong learning,” and promoting “cross-industry and public-private collaboration.”

The Future for Women

Female employees are an important resource for organizations responding to the disruptive change of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Paradoxically, business areas with the most anticipated job growth have the fewest women workers and the toughest time attracting women. The two sectors with the most female employees – administrative and manufacturing – will experience the most disruptive change. The need to increase women’s presence in the workforce has become not only a “social issue,” but also a “business issue.”

“Organizations are going to have to become significantly more agile in the way they think about managing people’s work and about the workforce as a whole.”

While most respondents cited the need for gender parity as a matter of “fairness,” they also recognized the potential of greater parity to enhance diversity, improve decision making and increase profits. External forces such as media attention make the parity issue more urgent. Women’s presence at different levels of business varies; few become executives, though firms do promote women in junior and middle management. Obstacles to progress include “lack of work-life balance” and archaic “workplace structures that…still, often unwittingly, favor men.”

“Work is what people do and not where they do it.”

Respondents believe adaptable work schedules would make the most significant contribution to gender parity. Other tactics for “leveraging female talent” include: 1) setting realistic goals and measuring progress accurately; 2) providing women with better training and mentoring; 3) eliminating gender bias from “policies, processes and systems”; 4) promoting work-life balance and parental leave; 5) showing executive support for women’s advancement; and 6) promoting awareness and progress among “suppliers, distributors and partners.”