Summary of Economist Wu Xiaobo’s 2018 Recap and Forecasts for 2019

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Renowned economist Wu Xiaobo recaps important economic developments for the Chinese economy in 2018 and forecasts what might be in store in 2019. His speech covers marketing trends, manufacturing, new tech, finance and global politics. Wu doesn’t go into detail for many of his interesting predictions, so readers who are unfamiliar with these issues may need to brush up with additional background material.

About the Author

Wu Xiaobo is a financial writer and a publisher. He is best-known for his 2012 book, Storming 30 Years: 1978—2008 Chinese Enterprises.

 

Summary

The year 2018 was filled with major unforeseen events (black swans) and large, obvious threats that went ignored until too late (grey rhinos). Black swans included the US sanctions against ZTE and Huawei; grey rhinos included steep drops in the Chinese stock market as the Shanghai exchange fell by 24.59% and Shenzhen’s fell by 34.42%. Meanwhile, 2018 saw numerous companies rushing to go public in Hong Kong, spotlighting the shortcomings of China’s mainland stock exchanges and the pressing need for reforms. 

US president Donald Trump’s policies regarding international policy and the global economy hurt China. The trade war with the United States hindered China’s plans to upgrade its manufacturing capabilities as the United States and other foreign governments began limiting technology transfers and the sale of high-tech manufacturing companies to China. However, China houses 2,600 robotics companies – more than any other country in the world – and automation is growing in even the most traditional manufacturing industries. China’s start-up frenzy cooled down. And yet, the economies...