Summary of How Can We Predict the Next Financial Crisis?

TED Conferences LLC, more...

Watch the video

How Can We Predict the Next Financial Crisis? summary
Are extreme events predictable? Au revoir, black swans; bienvenue, dragon kings!


7 Overall

7 Importance

9 Innovation

6 Style


Risk economist Didier Sornette attempts to unravel the black swan theory, which draws the disconcerting conclusion that extreme events are unpredictable and unknowable. Sornette has developed a model that aims to forecast extreme events. Although he cherry-picks examples that corroborate his assumptions and his lecture contains some jargon, getAbstract nevertheless recommends his fresh insights to market analysts, corporate investors, government representatives with fiduciary responsibilities and anyone seeking comfort during times of financial instability.

In this summary, you will learn

  • What constitutes a financial “dragon-king,”
  • How financial bubble “regime changes” are predictable, and
  • How prediction researchers use scientific methodology to dispute “self-fulfilling prophecy” criticisms.


The Great Recession of 2007 and 2008 illustrated a
Get the key points from this video in less than 10 minutes. Learn more about our products or log in

About the Speaker

Didier Sornette is a risk economist and director of the Financial Crisis Observatory.

Comment on this summary

More on this topic

Related TED Links

By the same author

Customers who read this summary also read

More by category