Risk economist Didier Sornette attempts to unravel the black swan theory, which draws the disconcerting conclusion that extreme events are unpredictable and unknowable. Sornette has developed a model that aims to forecast extreme events. Although he cherry-picks examples that corroborate his assumptions and his lecture contains some jargon, getAbstract nevertheless recommends his fresh insights to market analysts, corporate investors, government representatives with fiduciary responsibilities and anyone seeking comfort during times of financial instability.
In this summary, you will learn
- What constitutes a financial “dragon-king,”
- How financial bubble “regime changes” are predictable, and
- How prediction researchers use scientific methodology to dispute “self-fulfilling prophecy” criticisms.
About the Speaker
Didier Sornette is a risk economist and director of the Financial Crisis Observatory.