Summary of Stalking the Black Swan

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Stalking the Black Swan book summary


7 Overall

8 Applicability

6 Innovation

8 Style


While many books talk about forecasting and decision making, this one is particularly engaging because of Kenneth A. Posner’s personal experience – and the honesty with which he discusses it. As a longtime analyst at Morgan Stanley, Posner had to make decisions about whether to invest in many recent high-profile, high-stakes “Black Swan” anomalies. He explains general models and approaches to dealing with uncertainty, sorting information, and developing your analytical skills and judgment. That alone is worthwhile, but the book is especially lively when Posner reviews his specific decisions. He shares his reasoning and exposes his successes and his failures to public view. The result is a knowledge-dense but very readable work that getAbstract recommends to all analysts, but also to those who want to deal with information overload and improve their decision making.

In this summary, you will learn

  • What causes “Black Swans,”
  • How to predict them and
  • How to deal with the challenges of uncertainty and information processing.

About the Author

Kenneth A. Posner worked as a Morgan Stanley managing director and senior research analyst.



Dealing with Uncertainty
Predicting any future event is hard enough, but predicting a “Black Swan” is harder. Nassim Nicholas Taleb brought the term “Black Swan” into circulation as a metaphor for being blinded by past experience when you face surprising phenomena. He wrote of Europeans...

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