Summary of The Uneven Path Ahead

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The June 2016 UK vote to quit the European Union shocked the world and set into motion a series of events hurtling the country toward Brexit in March 2019. As the political leave-taking process grinds on, economist Jiaqian Chen takes a close look at the potential impact on the British economy and its industries. Because the EU and the United Kingdom have been linked economically and politically for decades, the unwinding of the partnership presents severe challenges for both parties. Executives and public officials will find this sobering report a valuable forecasting tool.

In this summary, you will learn

  • What UK residents should anticipate as Brexit unfolds, 
  • How Brexit could affect various industries and businesses, and
  • How UK leaders should respond to Brexit’s impact on employment.
 

About the Author

Jiaqian Chen is an economist in the European department of the International Monetary Fund. 

 

Summary

After March 2019, when Brexit finalizes, UK residents will get their first taste of life after the European Union. The economic ramifications for the country may be quite onerous, as the United Kingdom currently sends 44% of its exports to the EU. The European Single Market offered Britain a seamless trading bloc with 27 other member nations. Without a new trade compact, experts predict deleterious effects on industries across Britain’s economy. For example, the UK’s financial services firms perform roughly 25% of their work for EU clients, and the automotive industry sells 56% of its cars to EU buyers. Manufacturing businesses with robust interconnections within EU supply chains face a greater risk of negative Brexit externalities. Producers of chemicals, transportation equipment, and electrical and optical equipment would bear the brunt. UK leaders also must contend with issues surrounding the free movement of labor. Inside the EU, Britain benefited from talent inflows to the country, as a result of the bloc’s open border policies among members. Under the new governance, British business executives will have less access to European workers. 


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