Given that the current economic recovery in the United States began in 2009, some observers think that an economic slowdown is long overdue. But does a long recovery necessarily translate into an inevitable reversal of economic fortune? Or are periodic short-term stumbles just parts of the aging process that occur in a normal, growing economy? Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believes “it’s a myth that expansions die of old age.” Economist Glenn D. Rudebusch finds support for Yellen’s observation in this eye-opening examination of post–World War II recoveries, which getAbstract recommends to economists and others interested in a new take on forecasting trends.
In this summary, you will learn
- Why some observers think the United States is due for a slowdown or recession,
- How “survival analysis” can help gauge the probability of the recovery’s ending, and
- Why post–World War II historical patterns show that today’s long-lasting economic recovery is not particularly unusual.
About the Author
Glenn D. Rudebusch is director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.