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Beyond the Horse Race

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Beyond the Horse Race

How to Read Polls and Why We Should

Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc.,

15 min. de leitura
9 Ideias Fundamentais
Áudio & Texto

Sobre o que é?

Beyond the surface data, polling can offer unexpected insights into voters’ values and motivations.

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Editorial Rating

8

getAbstract Rating

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Recommendation

What can polling really reveal about voter’s motivations and future election results? Pollster John Zogby’s insightful work offers a comprehensive guide to the complex world of polling. With clarity and depth, he unpacks the nuances behind the numbers, highlighting both the power and pitfalls of polls in reflecting — and shaping — public opinion. Zogby’s accessible writing style and real-world examples make the subject informative and engaging. His book is a good resource for anyone interested in a deeper understanding of the intersection between polls and the choices voters make on Election Day.

Summary

Polling can offer valuable insights into voter priorities and motivations, but it can also mislead.

Polling missteps in the lead-up to the 2000 US presidential election showcased how poll data can be misleading while also offering important insights about the voting public. Polls at the time showed George W. Bush with a considerable lead over Al Gore, but the reality was a far closer race: Though he lost the White House, Gore narrowly won the popular vote. This disparity between expectations and the final vote tallies shows polling’s limitations in close races, where results can shift unexpectedly due to last-minute factors. In the case of Bush and Gore, the revelation that Bush had been arrested for driving under the influence in 1976 affected his support. Polls can be particularly misleading when people treat them only as predictors of the “horse race,” potentially neglecting nuances in voter behavior and shifts in demographic groups.

Polling’s true value lies beyond simply forecasting winners; it provides insights into voter priorities, motivations, and underlying social trends. Detailed polling data, or “crosstabs...

About the Author

John Zogby is a prominent American pollster, author, and the founder of the polling firm Zogby International.

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