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The Storm Before the Calm

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The Storm Before the Calm

America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond

Doubleday,

15 min read
7 take-aways
Text available

What's inside?

Wondering what’s next for America? The answer lies in looking back.

Editorial Rating

9

getAbstract Rating

  • Analytical
  • Visionary
  • Engaging

Recommendation

Futurist George Friedman puts great stock in historical cycles. As he argues in this intriguing study, the United States stands on the cusp of a wrenching stretch of years that will be painful but necessary to clear the way for a new period of prosperity. Friedman explains the effects of cycles on US political, social and economic fortunes, and he posits that America is due for a reset in the 2020s. His illuminating work will appeal to students of history as well as those seeking to envision the future of the United States.

Summary

Americans assign outsized importance to the presidency.

Regardless of who resides in the White House – George Washington, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Richard Nixon or Donald Trump – the American citizenry focuses undue attention on the presidency. The US system is actually designed to de-emphasize the executive branch. In fact, American presidents have less power than European prime ministers. 

Whoever occupies the Oval Office simply rides certain cyclical waves. They collect the credit or take the criticism for broad social, economic and political shifts over which they have little control. Still, presidential power, particularly the power to wage war, has grown over the decades. Indeed, World War II marked the last time that the US military entered into a conflict with a formal declaration of war. Subsequent warfare was waged largely at the discretion of the president.

“Institutional and socioeconomic cycles” have governed predictable patterns in US history.

The results of presidential elections have more to do with the sweep of history than with the assets or shortcomings of any particular...

About the Author

George Friedman is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, a forecasting company. His previous books include The Next Decade and The Next 100 Years.

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