Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings

Some influential leaders were uniquely talented or born at the ideal time and place; others waited for the right time to act and seized their moment.

Attempting to parse why leaders succeed or fail is a fascinating exercise. For example, what if Adolf Hitler had died when a truck struck his car in 1930, three years before he became chancellor of Germany? Antisemitism was already entrenched in Germany at that time, and the harsh conditions set by the Treaty of Versailles at the end of World War I might have led to war anyway — so would his death have altered history?

Such questions frame a larger, evergreen query: What roles do leaders really play in the success or failure of their nations, organizations, religions, or teams? Scholars’ answers tend to follow three diverging tracks. First, the “Great Man theory of history,” advanced by Scottish historian Thomas Carlyle (1795-1881), says that exceptional leaders dominate history. That is, without them, pivotal historical events would never have taken place.

Second, the opposite theory is that circumstances shape and limit individual leaders’ impact. Leo Tolstoy calls the leaders in his novel War and Peace