Summary of Scenarios for Ukraine

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Throughout 2013, the World Economic Forum (WEF) consulted with more than 300 representatives of business, politics and civil society, inside and outside Ukraine, to examine the long-term economic and social issues confronting Ukrainians and to outline some possible scenarios. In light of the area’s current turmoil, this report’s prescriptions may seem far removed from the nation’s immediate struggle to retain its territory and sovereignty. But today’s economic, political and social problems are likely to remain when this crisis is over, whatever its outcome. getAbstract recommends this clear overview of the major challenges and choices Ukraine faces.

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The World Economic Forum is an independent, international organization that convenes leaders from business, politics, academia and society to tackle global issues.



Despite its weak governmental and civil institutions, and an economy reliant on inefficient, outdated practices in metallurgy and agriculture, Ukraine delivered robust growth in the early 2000s. Strong global demand for its exports and investors’ attraction to emerging markets buoyed its economy. That success, which forestalled reform and modernization, ended in 2009, when Ukraine’s GDP shrank nearly 15%. With geopolitical pressures now buffeting the country, Ukraine’s future will depend on the decisions its stakeholders make to resolve its political and economic issues. Three scenarios depict possible paths...

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